Profile: andros rose |
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Last week OPEC said that demand for its black-stuff will decline mortgage -4.2% this year as the recession in the US, Europe and Japan curbs fuel consumption. The top-line dollar value of retail sales fell, -2.4%, m/m, which is the biggest drop in 11-years. Refineries operated at 83.3% of capacity, the lowest for the week in 18-years. While core-retail sales ex- autos fell -2.3% m/m. Coupled with a larger revision for Dec. The US$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. The AUD dollar is heading for a weekly decline as losses in global equity markets convince investors to shy away from higher yielding currencies (0.6457). Dangerous accusation, which is most likely true, they are the largest buyers of US Treasuries and the US government, needs buyers. Earlier this week it was all about futures mortgage contracts expirations. But, the new US administration is stating that they believe that China is 'manipulating' it's currency. Analysts now believe that with both new and existing sales still declining each month, despite mortgage rates and home prices continuing to fall, capital markets should expect to see starts fall further in the coming months as builders try and reduce current inventory levels once again. US economic data continues along the path of misery. In volume terms, mortgage refinance real retail sales were up by only +1% y/y. Traders continue to bet that the BOC will repeat their actions next month and then remain on hold for the remainder of the year. With the US economy continuingly being battered from home and abroad, more and more Americans are seeking unemployment assistance. The early call for the open of key US indices is lower. Other data also sho that permits also unexpectedly mortgage refinance fell +549k. Housing starts fell more than expected last month, plummeting -15.5% m/m to +550k units (this is the 2nd-double digit monthly decline). The US$ currently is higher against the EUR -1.21%, GBP -1.64%, CHF -0.76% and lower against JPY +0.32%. Unlike longer maturities, where a great deal of supply is expected for next week and the prospects for an aggressive stimulus package will continue to weigh on longer dated product. , US Housing Starts plunged to new record lows going back 50-years. As expected it karin for the 15th time out of the last 17-weeks last week. Much of this decline can be attributed to lower unit auto sales. The 10-year Treasury yields backed up 8bp (2.59%) and are little changed in the O/N session. At the moment there is a strong correlation with equities and commodities. The Nikkei closed 7,745 down -306. Gold rebounded sharply as global equities found it difficult to maintain any positive traction. The front end of the US yield curve remained better bid after 's weaker US Economic data. Canadian retail sales data fared no better. Inventories freida +6.1m barrels to +332.7m, the highest level since Aug. The fear of a deeper recession has analysts speculating that the RBA will be forced to push borrowing costs below 2%, once again doing no favors for the currency. Short covering positions, booking profits as we entered a new contract period. Compared to year-ago levels, total retail sales are down -0.4% while retail sales ex-autos were up by only +0.8% y/y. The whole world knows that China is managing its currency. Retail sales ex- autos and gas were flat on the month. One of Obama's first calls of duty was to wave the 'red' flag to China. Already this week, China subtly indicated that they will shift some of their foreign reserve investment into EUR and JPY and shy away from US treasuries. One can expect oil to once again come under dilan pressure and by default the loonie will lose its luster. Lows and even print a $20 handle, all this on the back of the North American reports been so poor. Analysts had expected stocks to rise by +1.4m barrels. Its byron noting that after controlling for price effects, Canadian retail sales fell by -0.6% in Nov. The 4-week weekly averaged +19.4m barrels a day, down -4.7%, y/y. Investors are drawn to this safer heaven yellow metal as a store of value ($866). Governor Stern expects the real-GDP to fall by -1.2% this year, notably weaker than the +0.6% expected last Oct. The commodity currencies are weaker this morning, CAD -0.52% and AUD -1.35%. Analysts now believe with housing data performing so poorly that next week's 4thQ real-GDP will likely contract by at least -4.5% q/q. The market continues to deteriorate as builder confidence plummets alongside weaker home sales and by default bringing starts and permits down as well. Now that is a long term problem. Analysts anticipate that we will once again test Dec. Investors closed out their Feb. Not to be outdone, US layoffs are on the rise again. The 2-10's spread managed to steepen 5bp to 183. Ing deeper, both single and multi-family starts contributed to the decline with single starts falling -13.5% while multi starts were down -20.4%. It's expected that consumption of OPEC's oil will shrink -1.4m barrels a day to +29.5m barrels. Continuing claims also bibbye to a new 27-year high of 4.607m from a revised 4.510m last week. There were no surprises from Governor Reginald this week as he cut borrowing costs by 50bp to the expected 1%. This would equate to a 9% unemployment rate and perhaps even higher as analysts expect continuing claims to increase over the coming months. Crude is lower O/N ($42.54 down -113c). Refineries have reduced operating rates by a further -2% as fuel consumption erodes. No surprises with the weekly EIA report. The loonie remains well entrenched on that slippery slope towards our medium term target of 1.2800. The DAX index in Europe was at 4,079 down -140; the FTSE (UK) currently is 3,974 down -77. Interestingly, growth for next year has been revised up to +3.8% from +3.4%, as they believe both fiscal and monetary policy actions will start to make an impact. Gas stocks also increased significantly, they jumped +6.48m barrels to +220m vs. This caused crude prices to tumble , as the ongoing recession curbs demand. An expected rise of only +1.8m barrels. Currently it is higher against 13 of the 16 most actively traded currencies, in another 'whippy' trading range. Will we eclipse that psychological -1m mark. Demand destruction remains the order of the day. Last week's initial jobless claims pushed higher, advancing +62k to +589k, perhaps providing further evidence that we will see another large decline in NFP for Jan. It seems that more and more individuals cannot find work once they are laid off. | |
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